Education Pipeline

10,100 Children Born

• Of the 10,100 children born in Jefferson County in a typical year, about 2,100 are born into poverty, but more than twice that many qualify for free or reduced-price lunches based on family income when they enter first grade.1
• In a typical year, JCPS identifies about a thousand eighth graders at serious risk for dropping out as they head off to high school.2
• There is connection between a parent's education attainment and the family's poverty rate.  The national poverty rate among families headed by a person with less than a high school education is 24%; for those with a high school diploma, the rate is 11%; for those with some college, the rate is 8%; for those with a Bachelor's degree or higher, the rate is 3.5%.3

6,900 Graduate High School

• Of the 6,900 high school graduates in Jefferson County in 2006, 73% graduated from Jefferson County Public Schools; 21% from Catholic Schools; 5% from private schools; and, 1% from home schools.4
• Calculations of high school graduation rates are inconsistent and vary widely across the nation and among local high schools. Best estimates are that Jefferson County Public Schools graduate about three-quarters(75%) of students who enter 9th grade. Another 200 will go on to earn a diploma after a fifth or sixth year, and, by age 24, 830 more will earn a GED.5
• High school graduates' median earnings in 2007 were more than $8,000 higher than someone who has completed some high school but did not obtain a diploma.6
• Households headed by a high school graduate accumulate ten times more wealth, including cash investments such as retirement and savings accounts, and homes, cars, and small businesses, than households headed by a high school dropout. In other words, for every $500 of wealth owned by households headed by a high school dropout, their peers with diplomas have accumulated approximately $5,000.7

3,200 Do Not Graduate High School

• The largest number of drop-outs occurs during the first two years of high school.8
• There is a connection between high school graduation and crime-related expenditures: If there was a 5% increase in male high school graduation rates, Kentucky could recognize an annual savings of $87 million from reduced crime-related expenditures and increased annual earnings from these graduates.9
• High-school dropouts are 3.5 times more likely than graduates to be incarcerated. 75% of state prison inmates and 59% of federal inmates are high-school dropouts.10
• If 33% of dropouts graduated from high school, the federal government would save $10.8 billion each year in food stamps, housing assistance, and temporary assistance for needy families.11

For more information:  America's Promise Alliance, a cross-sector partnership of more than 300 corporations, nonprofits, faith-based organizations and advocacy groups working to ensure that all young people graduate from high school ready for college, work and life, recommends the book "The Last Dropout: Stop the Epidemic!"

5,500 Directly Enter Postsecondary Education

• The 80% of local high school graduates who enter postsecondary school is roughly comparable to the college-going rate in cities with higher education attainment. But the proportion that succeeds in earning a bachelor’s degree is lower.12
• The number of students who enter postsecondary education may be affected by guidance counselors. In academic year 2007, the counselor-to-student ratio at JCPS was 378:1. In AY2009, the ratio for the archdiocese was 154:1. In 2005, the national average in high schools was 229:1.13
• Jefferson Community and Technical College enrolls almost two-thirds of the 1,400 graduates who enter two-year programs, and the best estimate for a graduation rate among those students is 30%. The University of Louisville enrolls almost 30% of local students who enter four-year college, and its graduation rate has risen to 46% for the most recent students.14

1,400 Do Not Enter Postsecondary Education

• Of the 1,400 high school graduates who do not directly enter postsecondary school, 1,200 go straight to work, with about 300 of them employed in a field for which they earned a vocational credit.15
• While individuals with lower income generally have poorer health, more than twice as many low income high school graduates report poor health than low income college graduates.16
• Fewer projected new jobs in the Greater Louisville area will have on-the-job training possibilities and more will require at least a 4-year degree. Louisville’s need to graduate more of its college-going students is directly linked to our ability to fill projected jobs in our region through 2018. 17

For more information

• Explore this issue further in the Greater Louisville Project blog.

4,100 Remain in Postsecondary Education After First Year

• Postsecondary retention is dependent on a number of factors, among them a student’s level of academic preparedness. A 2003-2004 profile of post-secondary institutions found that at 4-year public schools, 73% of first- and second-year undergraduates had taken remedial math. At 2-year public schools this percentage was 80%.18
• Another indicator of a student’s ability to remain in postsecondary education is whether his/her parents have some college experience. Nationally, in 2005, the percentage of first generation students among first time freshman was 15.6%.  The percentage of first-generation college students at local universities varies.  In academic year 2009, the percentage of students with parents with some or no college was: 40% at U of L; 46% at Bellarmine, 51% at Spalding and 45% at Indiana University Southeast.19

1,400 Leave After First Year

• A recent study by the Pell Institute found that only 11 percent of first-generation college students earn a bachelor’s degree after six years, compared with 55 percent of their peers. 20
• Only 14 percent of low-income, first-generation students attending public two-year and for-profit institutions transferred to four-year institutions within six years compared to 50 percent of their more advantaged peers.21
• 63 percent of low-income, first-generation students attending public two-year institutions said they planned to earn at least a bachelor’s degree, with nearly half of these students aspiring to post-baccalaureate degrees upon enrollment. Yet, only 5 percent of them actually earned bachelor’s degrees within six years.22
• 60 percent of low-income, first-generation students who leave postsecondary education without attaining a degree do so after the first year. Implementing strategies such as programs during the summer between high school and college, orientation sessions, courses before and during the freshman year, and first-year learning communities have all been shown to help students acquire the skills and knowledge needed to become successful learners.23



For more information

• Locally, Bellarmine University has established a mentoring program aimed at retaining, and graduating, more first generation students.

2,500 Obtain Postsecondary Degree

• A family’s income is one predictor of degree attainment rates. The baccalaureate degree attainment rate among young people from low-income families increased from 6 percent in 1970 to 12 percent in 2005; however, the rate among high-income youth increased from 40 percent to 73 percent. This means that high-income youth are six times more likely to earn a four-year degree than are low-income students, and the gap between them has nearly doubled in the last 35 years.24
• Overall, about one in four of the 10,100 children born each year in Louisville Metro will earn a postsecondary degree, although some will return later, as adults, to finish. About 2,050 will earn a Bachelor’s Degree and 430 will complete a community college degree.25
• Increased education attainment is linked to an increase in volunteerism; in Kentucky in 2004, 45% of individuals with a BA degree and higher volunteered while only 13% of the population with less than a high school diploma volunteered.26
• Increased education attainment is also linked to increased voting rates: In the November 2000 election, 57% of Kentuckians with only a high school diploma voted while 76% of Kentuckians with a BA and 84% of Kentuckians with an advanced degree voted.27

1,600 Do Not Obtain Postsecondary Degree

• Louisville’s percentage of young adults who attended college but left before completing a degree is higher than its peer cities. For example, more than 25% of Louisville’s young adult population, age 25-34, has some college but no degree. Only 20% of young adults in Columbus and 19% of young adults in Nashville fit this definition.  Overall, about one hundred thousand residents of Jefferson County have some college credit but no degree.28
• Factors that put students at risk of leaving postsecondary education without earning their degrees include: Delaying entry into postsecondary education after high school; Attending part-time; Working full-time while enrolled; Being financially independent from parents; Having dependent children; Being a single parent; and, Having a GED.29

For more information

• Explore this issue further in the Greater Louisville Project Blog.